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Irvine Housing Blog |
How to read an Irvine home sales report Posted: 29 Apr 2011 03:29 AM PDT Most stories on the Irvine Company are planted in the media as advertisements disguised as news. Today we learn how to properly read and interpret these stories.
Irvine Home Address ... 203 BRIARWOOD Irvine, CA 92604
When the National Association of realtors issues a press release, they always spin the data like a Pollyanna. Their rosy projections are intended to cajole buyers into action whether or not that action is good for the buyer. Their actions are completely self serving. realtors have bullshit and spin down to a formula. Barry Ritholtz, a blogger who is as disdainful of the NAr as I am, has decoded the pattern of self-serving nonsense realtors serve up with every press release. How to Read National Association of Realtors News ReleaseBy Barry Ritholtz - April 20th, 2011, 2:19PM
Barry is right on, as usual. With his preamble, let's take a detailed look at how the Irvine Company operates. The specifics of data, spin and bullshitFor greater clarity, we need to define some terms before we analyze an Irvine Company press release. Data: Factual statements that present statistics or some measurable phenomenon. Presenting data is ostensibly the reason for a real estate press release. However, the real intention is to spin the data or otherwise manipulate the interpretation. Spin: The offered interpretation of data that forwards the agenda of the organization issuing the press release. Spin is usually a plausible interpretation that is most often taken out of context, knowingly, by the authors. Bullshit: An interpretation of data that is either not factual, or the data itself is not factual, or an interpretation that is not plausible based on the data. Bullshit is an obvious lie an organization passes off to a gullible public in hopes that nobody catches on. The color coding of text above will be used to help decipher the nonsense that follows. Analyst: Why Irvine new home sales are booming By G.U. KRUEGER For THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
This false statement falls under the category of repeating a lie long enough that people come to believe it. Back in February, I reported that the Irvine Company opens two new developments with 2,600 houses, and later I asked How large is the Irvine land premium?
The truth is from January 2010 to February 2011, the Irvine Company closed on 642 home sales, not the 1,350 number they keep repeating.
Four to eight sales per month? That is terrible. Nice spin sandwiched between some negative data points. If sales don't pick up, they will either slow production, or they will start offering incentives to close deals. I doubt they would lower prices, particularly after creating their own bottom by selling under market properties in 2009. They will maintain prices by providing necessary incentives until that doesn't work any more.
This time we got spin as bookends on data. When did manufacturing become a well paying job? How many factory workers are buying $800,000 Irvine homes? Fifty percent of good paying real estate and mortgage jobs have left Irvine over the last several years.
The facts presented above are very good reasons to live in Irvine. Notice the author had to punch-up the facts with spin.
The fact at the beginning of the sentence is meaningless, and the bullshit that follows it is silly.
That point was a mixture of fact, spin, and ass-kissing bullshit.
The reason new home supply is tight in Irvine is because the Irvine Company is a monopoly that controls the production of all new homes in Irvine. It has nothing to do with location. Also, there is no new home competition in Irvine, and there is very little competition in Orange County. Rancho Mission Viejo is waiting to see what the Irvine Company does, and the small builders are not active on infill sites because prices are not stable and sales volumes are low. The Irvine Company is proud of their new floorplans, but competitors are not building bubble era designs. BTW, I find it interesting that they acknowledged a housing bubble in their press release.
It's difficult to sort through the facts, spin and bullshit above. First, the existing inventory is not tight. The months on the market continues to rise as inventory is growing faster than sales. I like how he spun the data with qualifying words. The manipulation of the vacancy data is spin that borders on bullshit. Vacancies are elevated over historic norms everywhere because we overbuilt homes during the bubble. We have a glut of empty homes in most communities. Many of these homes are held in shadow inventory which is not under control. He notes foreclosures and defaults are rising, but they he lapses into total bullshit about it being low and temporary.
At least the press release finishes well.
This is another strength of the Irvine Company. They do deliver a top-notch product.
The Irvine Company has done a nice job with the new floorplans. Although, the idea that floorplans can be fresh or innovative is on par with the idea that finance can innovate. Floorplans change over time, but they don't advance. The good floorplans of the 70s are just as useful and desirable today as they were when they were the innovation of their time.
Focusing on the details of the floorplan is a great thing. It becomes much easier to do when you are selling a small fraction of what you used to sell. The spinmeisters at the Irvine Company are going to have to raise their game. The standard of bullshit they were able to pass off in the past will not longer get past the scrutiny of me and the IHB. It's obvious the Orange County Register, who is desperate for advertising money, is not going to tell the truth.
So what is really going to happen? Wells economist: Foreclosure supply points to 'long, arduous' recovery Jon Prior -- Monday, April 25th, 2011, 12:31 pm
I see this price gap in Las Vegas in particular. It is so inexpensive to own a home in Las Vegas that many people are opting to buy new rather than save 25% and buy a resale simply because they can easily afford the new home. New homes sell for near rental parity there even though you can find a comparable product less than 5 years old selling for 25% less. Unfortunately, as resale prices continue to decline, this gap is getting stretched, and the substitution effect is taking sales from the builders. Those circumstances won't change in Las Vegas any time soon.
The reality for new home sales isn't good. A flip gone badToday's featured property was originally purchased by a Ponzi in 2003. She HELOCed and refinanced herself into oblivion terminating with an Option ARM in 2006. She quit paying in mid 2009, and was promptly foreclosed on. Foreclosure Record Foreclosure Record At the foreclosure auction in January of 2010, the property was purchased for $258,000. After overpaying at auction, the flippers plowed more money into the property and put is for sale. Property History for 203 BRIARWOOD
It looks like they managed to get the property in escrow just as the tax credit was expiring. Then it fell out of escrow. It's never a good thing when a property falls out of escrow, but when it falls out at the top of the market, it turns out even worse for the flipper. They relisted the property almost a year ago, and they have been chasing the market down ever since.
Greed kept them in the hunt past the prime selling season, and by the time they realized they needed to cut their price to get out of the property, it was too late. Now they are looking at a $30,000 loss after their renovation and carrying costs. So much for easy money in real estate.
Irvine House Address ... 203 BRIARWOOD Irvine, CA 92604
Have a great weekend, Irvine Renter |
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Irvine Housing Blog |
Great Britian’s housing bubble is just like California’s Posted: 28 Apr 2011 03:30 AM PDT Great Britain experienced a housing bubble at the same time the United States did. They are dealing with the same issues we are in the aftermath.
Irvine Home Address ... 19 MOONSTONE #0 Irvine, CA 92606
The problems associated with the inflation and deflation of a housing bubble are universal. Many countries in Europe experienced a housing bubble in parallel to ours in the United States. Just like us, they have witnessed utter collapse of the low end, lenders permitting squatting at the high end, and rumors of foreign cash buyers coming to save the day.
Back in March I wrote Ireland’s housing bubble: like ours, only worse. And back in December I commented on how Spain shows how to keep house prices inflated. Both of those countries inflated enormous housing bubbles that caused a massive mis-allocation of resources and the construction of 20 years worth of housing product, much of which may be abandoned. Thinks weren't quite as bad in Great Britain, but the fallout there is very similar to our experience here in California. The 'other' housing market, where house prices have regressed 60%By Jeremy Warner, Assistant Editor 6:00AM BST 21 Apr 2011 An apartment on London's Hyde Park recently changed hands at an astonishing £136m.
The prime areas of London, similar to our coastal communities, continue to trade at or near the height of the bubble (when they sell at all). The subprime areas like Riverside County have been knocked back 60%, and they show no signs of improvement. There is a parallel between Great Britain's experience and our own. To see this "other" housing market, I've been to Newcastle and its surrounding areas in the North East, the region that gave birth to the folly of Northern Rock. It's impossible for me to say what is causing Britain's high end to hold firm. Ours is held up by shadow inventory, low transaction volumes, and large down payments. The same is likely true in Great Britain. Unfortunately, they are more the exception than the rule. Little more than a stone's throw from these posher areas lies a tale of catastrophic decline and value destruction to match the very worst the sub-prime crisis has managed to produce in the US. Tens of thousands of houses in the North East alone will have fallen in value by 30-60pc since the peak, and by the look of it, still have further to go. Does that conjure up images in your mind of some of the high desert communities in California? Yet believe it or not, these very same houses and flats were until three years ago as much a part of the British property bubble as everywhere else – perhaps more so in some cases. Just like California's bubble, prices went up 250% in a very short period of time, and crashed nearly back to their starting point. Typical of this phenomenon is Benwell, located on the hillside that tumbles down to the Tyne in Newcastle's West end. A scene of grim degradation, it stands as a lasting reminder of the policy failures and illusory prosperity of Brown's Britain. Pumped up on a sea of credit, make work public expenditure and benefit payments, prices rocketed from 2000 onwards. That sounds like Sacramento.
Foreign cash buyers are always the last to the party, and they always endure the biggest losses.
Sound familiar?
Our banks aren't limited like Britain's banks are. With the direct government backing of mortgage-backed securities and the ability to sell them to investors, we are fully capable of inflating another housing bubble. That's one of the reasons the debate over the qualified residential mortgage in Washington is so important. If we get that legislation wrong, we will inflate another housing bubble at taxpayer expense.
realtor bullshit also appears to be universal.
Talk about misplaced trust. Yikes!
It's hard to say what will happen to many of our subprime areas. There was no reason for prices to go up in many of these areas, so there is no reason to believe prices will recover in many of them. How long will it take prices to come back in Fresno. Forever is my guess.
Public policy is failing to address many downtrodden areas in California as well. Of course, with the wide range of very serious problems facing California, it isn't likely that much money or attention is going to be focused on the problems in rural areas. Most will be left to rot. Just a little PonziIf there is a proper way to utilize the stupidity of lenders, it is demonstrated by the owner of today's featured property. He bought the property with a minimal down payment, he refinanced to get his money back out of the deal, then he left it alone to see what happened. By withdrawing his down payment, he eliminated his risk of loss, and by keeping the mortgage equity withdrawal to a minimum, he kept his cost of ownership as low as possible. He still gamed the system and left the bank to eat the losses, but he did it in the wisest way possible. His only real loss is his credit score. This property was purchased for $436,000 on 8/23/2003. The current asking price makes this a 2003 rollback.
The owner used a $391,964 first mortgage, and a $44,036 down payment at purchase. On 11/4/2004 he refinanced with a $462,500 first mortgage and a $60,500 HELOC. He didn't even manage to steal $100,000 from the lender. He is a lightweight by Irvine standards.
Irvine House Address ... 19 MOONSTONE #0 Irvine, CA 92606 |
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