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Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden

Posted: 21 May 2012 05:00 AM PDT

A million dollar dream of 2005 turned into a trap for many buyers in 2009 with the properties in that area selling for a discount of around $200,000. With the chatter of the possible bottom in the ‘Summer of 2012’, the Camelia tract of Northwood II saw a lot of activity despite of good location, and excellent schools. Now that ‘Summer of 2012’ is almost here, I wanted to go back in history and see if those that bought in the frenzy of 2009 made a good decision. So, instead of comparing two identical properties for sale in the same village, I will compare a property on the market now with a property that sold in 2009.

The property I have picked is 52 Secret Garden in Northwood. Karen covered the open house in her blog post last week. Also, a discussion on Talk Irvine validates interest in the property.

Here is the sales history of six years for identical properties in the same tract. The selling price seems to be stable around $300/SF. The peak was in 2006, at $381/SF. The bottom so far was at $275 in 2009.

Year Sold

Address

Sale Price

Price/ SF

2006

25 Grape Arbor

$1,180,000

$381 – Highest

2008

26 Teak Bridge

26 Grape Arbor

42 Secret Garden

61 Secret Garden

$1,075,000

$939,000

$942,000

$950,000

$350

$306

$301

$301

2009

59 Fire Thorn

71 Secret Garden

25 Grape Arbor

62 East Bamboo

64 Secret Garden

27 Secret Garden

$940,000

$843,000

$855,000

$915,000

$865,000

$949,000

$306

$275

$276 - Lowest

$291

$279

$309

2010

27 Torrey Pine

60 Corn Flower

$900,000

$939,000

$290

$300

2011

56 Fire Thorn

61 Crab Apple

$921,500

$905,000

$297

$292

2012

32 Torrey Pine

30 Secret Garden

61 Secret Garden

$957,000

$965,000

$979,000

$309

$301

$306

For comparison I chose 71 Secret Garden sold in 2009. It defines the bottom for the Camelia tract so far at $275/SF.

Address

52 Secret Garden

71 Secret Garden

Listing Price

$969,000

$843,000 (Sold)

Original purchase price

$1,008,000 Sept, 2005

$1,018,000 Nov, 2008

$1,130,000 April, 2005

 

Price/ SF

$313

$275

HOA Dues

$142

$142

Monthly Mortgage

$3649

(30 YR Fixed, 3.875%)

$3724

(30 YR Fixed, 5.25%)

Source: CNN money

Down Payment

$193,980

$168,600

Property Tax (1.0595%)

$10266

$8674

Mello Roos

$3336

$3336

Annual Tax + Mello Roos

$13602

$12011

Monthly expenses

$4924

$4866

52 Secret Garden

 

71 Secret Garden

Similar homes in the area have rented for $4200-$4300. In my opinion, it hasn’t made much difference considering the plunge in mortgage rates.What do you think? Was the worst over in 2009, or is it yet to come? Will the Camelia tract go below $290/SF again?


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