Inventory on Dec 16th, 2012: 226.

12/12/12 passed and the world didn’t come to an end. But inventory in Irvine seems to be coming to an end. If things continue at the same pace, we might soon see Irvine go below 200 by 2013. The new construction is selling out too, irrespective of the air quality due to highways in vicinity, or landfills with potential health risks. A bubble city in the bubble county, we are different people, immune to such things, as long as we live in the safest and most desirable city in America.  The Great Housing Depression didn’t drag us down much, and what the fiscal cliff can do will be seen in the future. Right now, it’s a seller’s market. Even though we might never see the Kool Aid prices of 2006-2007, we have recovered better than projected, and luckily we didn’t hit the projected bottom.

60 Reunion, Irvine CA 92603

Listing Price: $509,000
Beds/ Baths: 2 Beds/ 2.5 baths
Year Built: 2004
Property Type: Condominium
Style: Two level, Santa Barbara
Area: 1145 SF
Price/ SF: $445/ SF

Monthly Expenses:
Property Tax at 1.04938: $5342
Mello Roos: $2,291
Monthly mortgage at 3.25%: $1,763
HOA Dues: $190/ Month
Monthly Tax + Mello Roos: $636

Fixed Monthly Expenses:  $2,589 ($2.26/SF)

Buy now or be priced out forever? Let’s see how the “Sage- Reunion” condominiums in Quail Hill have performed in the past two years.

46 Reunion $406/SF
28 Reunion $401/SF
106 Reunion $436/SF
54 Reunion $350/SF
44 Reunion $420/SF

Inventory has diminished considerably (January 2011: around 700, January 2013 projected around 200). The sellers are taking advantage of the inventory and adding a premium.

In 2008, when we were in the market for a condominium, we looked at one of the Reunion condos. 110 Reunion. It was listed at $560,000, and sold at $558,000 ($429/SF, down from $557/SF in 2007). Still, we didn’t think it was discounted enough. We were looking at the projected Case-Shiller Index, and the shadow inventory and many such data that pointed at a much lower justified Price/SF. In 2009, these properties sold for $360/SF. But the expected doom and gloom spared Irvine, much like 12.12.12.

Premium to be the safest city, best school district, diverse neighborhood, fashion capital is fine. All it takes is one buyer to change the statistics of the neighborhood, but where do we draw a line?
When does justified premium turn into Kool Aid?
Will these condominiums see the exorbitant prices of $500+/SF?
What is the right price for Irvine condos in your opinion?

Comment below, or discuss at Talk Irvine.